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Warrego Energy Ltd

ASX:WGO
A$0.355Latest close held · delayed

Past year: ▲ 137%(11.0c – 36.0c AUD)

Market cap
A$441m
Shares on issue
1.24bn
In-ground value
A$2.42bn
Risked multiple
1.61×
Story beats
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Last event
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Value Warrego Energy Ltd yourself

Five quick questions, every figure from Warrego Energy Ltd's own disclosures (newest estimate 23 Jan 2023).

27 of 27 targets · best case · 21% overall chanceChance-weighted valueA$508.9mPer shareA$0.410vs price A$0.3551.15× · +15%
1

What do you want to value?

A target is an oil or gas accumulation Warrego Energy Ltd has published an estimate for. All of them count to start with, largest first - untick any you don't believe in.

A discovery has already been drilled and found oil or gas. A prospect has not been drilled yet, so it carries extra risk that nothing is there. Reserves are already being produced or approved.

2

How big could it be?

Companies give a low, best and high case. Pick one - the badges show how much the targets you picked hold in that case.

The low case has a 90% chance of being matched or beaten, the best case 50%, the high case only 10%. Gas is in billions of cubic feet, oil and condensate in millions of barrels.

50%chance of at least11,362bcf gas
50%chance of at least2,928mmbbl liquids
3

How likely is it?

Two chances multiply together: that the oil or gas is really there, and that it actually gets produced.

Being there only matters for an undrilled prospect - a discovery has already proved it. Getting produced needs funding, approvals, buyers and costs to line up. Reserves carry neither.

Chance it's there30%

Applies to the prospects you picked. 20-35% is typical for an undrilled conventional prospect.

Chance it gets produced50%

Applies to discoveries and prospects. Reserves are already counted as produced.

4

What is it worth in the ground?

Oil or gas still underground is worth far less than at the market - someone still has to pay to drill, build and produce it.

These defaults are a common rule of thumb for in-ground value. Takeover prices and broker reports help if you want your own figure.

5

When will we know?

Warrego Energy Ltd's own stated next steps, from its announcements.

The further away a result is, the longer your money waits - and the more chance of delays or new shares being issued to fund it.

Warrego Energy Ltd has not stated dates for its next steps in the announcements we hold.

✓

Your result

A$2.42bnif every picked target works
21%overall chance, by value
A$508.9mchance-weighted value

What each way to invest is worth

Chance-weighted value against today's price. Listed options get their own column - usually the most geared way in, and the riskiest.

1.15×
A$0.355WGOshares · 5.5× if it works

Your positions if you're right

What a holding would be worth at your chance-weighted A$0.410 a share. Nothing here is saved.

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