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OBSIDIAN ENERGY LTD.

US:OBELFTSX:OBEUS:OBE
C$15.16Close 7 Oct 2026 · delayed

Past year: ▲ 91%(7.95 – 19.38 CAD)

Market cap
—
Shares on issue
0
In-ground value
A$353m
Risked multiple
0.35×
Story beats
66 since 2006
Last event
3 Dec 2025

Value OBSIDIAN ENERGY LTD. yourself

Five quick questions, every figure from OBSIDIAN ENERGY LTD.'s own disclosures (newest estimate 4 Feb 2025).

1 of 1 target · best case · 100% overall chanceChance-weighted valueA$353.1mPer shareC$5.25vs price C$15.160.35× · −65%
1

What do you want to value?

A target is an oil or gas accumulation OBSIDIAN ENERGY LTD. has published an estimate for. All of them count to start with, largest first - untick any you don't believe in.

A discovery has already been drilled and found oil or gas. A prospect has not been drilled yet, so it carries extra risk that nothing is there. Reserves are already being produced or approved.

2

How big could it be?

Companies give a low, best and high case. Pick one - the badges show how much the targets you picked hold in that case.

The low case has a 90% chance of being matched or beaten, the best case 50%, the high case only 10%. Gas is in billions of cubic feet, oil and condensate in millions of barrels.

50%chance of at least297bcf gas
50%chance of at least58.6mmbbl liquids
3

How likely is it?

Two chances multiply together: that the oil or gas is really there, and that it actually gets produced.

Being there only matters for an undrilled prospect - a discovery has already proved it. Getting produced needs funding, approvals, buyers and costs to line up. Reserves carry neither.

Chance it's theren/a

Your targets are already discovered, so this chance doesn't apply. Pick a prospect to use it.

Chance it gets producedn/a

Only reserves are picked, so nothing here is risked.

4

What is it worth in the ground?

Oil or gas still underground is worth far less than at the market - someone still has to pay to drill, build and produce it.

These defaults are a common rule of thumb for in-ground value. Takeover prices and broker reports help if you want your own figure.

5

When will we know?

OBSIDIAN ENERGY LTD.'s own stated next steps, from its announcements.

The further away a result is, the longer your money waits - and the more chance of delays or new shares being issued to fund it.

  • 2026Program · Obsidian Energy Ltd.38 net operated wells in 2026
  • 2026Program · PCU #1110-well (4.5 net) non-operated program in 2026
  • 2026Program · Peace River26 (26.0 net) wells planned in 2026 heavy oil
  • Early 2027Next step · Belly River Acquisitionsix-well development program on acquired lands starting early 2027
  • Early 2027Next step · Willesden Greenplanned six-well development program on acquired lands in early 2027
✓

Your result

A$353.1mif every picked target works
100%overall chance, by value
A$353.1mchance-weighted value

What each way to invest is worth

Chance-weighted value against today's price. Listed options get their own column - usually the most geared way in, and the riskiest.

OBEshares · 0.3× if it worksC$15.16
0.35×
OBEshares · 0.3× if it worksUS$10.63
0.35×

Your positions if you're right

What a holding would be worth at your chance-weighted C$5.25 a share. Nothing here is saved.

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