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Melbana Energy Limited

ASX:MAY
A$0.0035Close 7 Oct 2026 · delayed

Past year: ▼ 77%(0.30c – 1.50c AUD)

Market cap
A$13.2m
Shares on issue
3.78bn
In-ground value
A$7.55bn
Risked multiple
under review
Story beats
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Last event
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Value Melbana Energy Limited yourself

Five quick questions, every figure from Melbana Energy Limited's own disclosures (newest estimate 28 Jan 2026).

76 of 76 targets · best case · 18% overall chanceChance-weighted valueA$1.36bnPer shareA$0.3592vs price A$0.0035102.64× · +10164%

A multiple this high usually means an old or unproven estimate is counting - check the targets in step 1 and untick any you don't believe in. The screener marks companies above 20× as under review.

1

What do you want to value?

A target is an oil or gas accumulation Melbana Energy Limited has published an estimate for. All of them count to start with, largest first - untick any you don't believe in.

A discovery has already been drilled and found oil or gas. A prospect has not been drilled yet, so it carries extra risk that nothing is there. Reserves are already being produced or approved.

2

How big could it be?

Companies give a low, best and high case. Pick one - the badges show how much the targets you picked hold in that case.

The low case has a 90% chance of being matched or beaten, the best case 50%, the high case only 10%. Gas is in billions of cubic feet, oil and condensate in millions of barrels.

50%chance of at least64,444bcf gas
3

How likely is it?

Two chances multiply together: that the oil or gas is really there, and that it actually gets produced.

Being there only matters for an undrilled prospect - a discovery has already proved it. Getting produced needs funding, approvals, buyers and costs to line up. Reserves carry neither.

Chance it's there30%

Applies to the prospects you picked. 20-35% is typical for an undrilled conventional prospect.

Chance it gets produced50%

Applies to discoveries and prospects. Reserves are already counted as produced.

4

What is it worth in the ground?

Oil or gas still underground is worth far less than at the market - someone still has to pay to drill, build and produce it.

These defaults are a common rule of thumb for in-ground value. Takeover prices and broker reports help if you want your own figure.

5

When will we know?

Melbana Energy Limited's own stated next steps, from its announcements.

The further away a result is, the longer your money waits - and the more chance of delays or new shares being issued to fund it.

Melbana Energy Limited has not stated dates for its next steps in the announcements we hold.

✓

Your result

A$7.55bnif every picked target works
18%overall chance, by value
A$1.36bnchance-weighted value

What each way to invest is worth

Chance-weighted value against today's price. Listed options get their own column - usually the most geared way in, and the riskiest.

102.64×
A$0.0035MAYshares · 570.7× if it works

Your positions if you're right

What a holding would be worth at your chance-weighted A$0.3592 a share. Nothing here is saved.

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