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GRAN TIERRA ENERGY INC.

NYSE:GTE
US$10.37Close 7 Oct 2026 · delayed

Past year: ▲ 202%(3.43 – 10.37 USD)

Market cap
A$519m
Shares on issue
35.4m
In-ground value
A$374m
Risked multiple
0.18×
Story beats
10 since 2022
Last event
5 Aug 2026

Value GRAN TIERRA ENERGY INC. yourself

Five quick questions, every figure from GRAN TIERRA ENERGY INC.'s own disclosures (newest estimate 29 Jan 2026).

6 of 6 targets · best case · 15% overall chanceChance-weighted valueA$56.1mPer shareUS$1.12vs price US$10.370.11× · −89%
1

What do you want to value?

A target is an oil or gas accumulation GRAN TIERRA ENERGY INC. has published an estimate for. All of them count to start with, largest first - untick any you don't believe in.

A discovery has already been drilled and found oil or gas. A prospect has not been drilled yet, so it carries extra risk that nothing is there. Reserves are already being produced or approved.

2

How big could it be?

Companies give a low, best and high case. Pick one - the badges show how much the targets you picked hold in that case.

The low case has a 90% chance of being matched or beaten, the best case 50%, the high case only 10%. Gas is in billions of cubic feet, oil and condensate in millions of barrels.

50%chance of at least223bcf gas
50%chance of at least96.4mmbbl liquids
3

How likely is it?

Two chances multiply together: that the oil or gas is really there, and that it actually gets produced.

Being there only matters for an undrilled prospect - a discovery has already proved it. Getting produced needs funding, approvals, buyers and costs to line up. Reserves carry neither.

Chance it's there30%

Applies to the prospects you picked. 20-35% is typical for an undrilled conventional prospect.

Chance it gets produced50%

Applies to discoveries and prospects. Reserves are already counted as produced.

4

What is it worth in the ground?

Oil or gas still underground is worth far less than at the market - someone still has to pay to drill, build and produce it.

These defaults are a common rule of thumb for in-ground value. Takeover prices and broker reports help if you want your own figure.

5

When will we know?

GRAN TIERRA ENERGY INC.'s own stated next steps, from its announcements.

The further away a result is, the longer your money waits - and the more chance of delays or new shares being issued to fund it.

  • 2026Next step · Dawson 102/12-11Advanced core analysis; core study completion in 2026
  • H2 2026Program · Simonette5 gross wells onstream in Second Half of 2026
✓

Your result

A$374.0mif every picked target works
15%overall chance, by value
A$56.1mchance-weighted value

What each way to invest is worth

Chance-weighted value against today's price. Listed options get their own column - usually the most geared way in, and the riskiest.

GTEshares · 0.7× if it worksUS$10.37
0.11×

Your positions if you're right

What a holding would be worth at your chance-weighted US$1.12 a share. Nothing here is saved.

Create a free account to save and share these assumptions, or sign in.