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EVOLUTION PETROLEUM CORP

NYSE:EPM
US$3.61Close 7 Oct 2026 · delayed

Past year: ▼ 18%(3.54 – 4.80 USD)

Market cap
A$205m
Shares on issue
40.2m
In-ground value
A$56.5m
Risked multiple
0.28×
Story beats
23 since 2004
Last event
6 Aug 2025

Value EVOLUTION PETROLEUM CORP yourself

Five quick questions, every figure from EVOLUTION PETROLEUM CORP's own disclosures (newest estimate 13 Sept 2022).

4 of 4 targets · best case · 100% overall chanceChance-weighted valueA$56.5mPer shareUS$0.9945vs price US$3.610.28× · −72%
1

What do you want to value?

A target is an oil or gas accumulation EVOLUTION PETROLEUM CORP has published an estimate for. All of them count to start with, largest first - untick any you don't believe in.

A discovery has already been drilled and found oil or gas. A prospect has not been drilled yet, so it carries extra risk that nothing is there. Reserves are already being produced or approved.

2

How big could it be?

Companies give a low, best and high case. Pick one - the badges show how much the targets you picked hold in that case.

The low case has a 90% chance of being matched or beaten, the best case 50%, the high case only 10%. Gas is in billions of cubic feet, oil and condensate in millions of barrels.

50%chance of at least91.4bcf gas
50%chance of at least8.42mmbbl liquids
3

How likely is it?

Two chances multiply together: that the oil or gas is really there, and that it actually gets produced.

Being there only matters for an undrilled prospect - a discovery has already proved it. Getting produced needs funding, approvals, buyers and costs to line up. Reserves carry neither.

Chance it's theren/a

Your targets are already discovered, so this chance doesn't apply. Pick a prospect to use it.

Chance it gets producedn/a

Only reserves are picked, so nothing here is risked.

4

What is it worth in the ground?

Oil or gas still underground is worth far less than at the market - someone still has to pay to drill, build and produce it.

These defaults are a common rule of thumb for in-ground value. Takeover prices and broker reports help if you want your own figure.

5

When will we know?

EVOLUTION PETROLEUM CORP's own stated next steps, from its announcements.

The further away a result is, the longer your money waits - and the more chance of delays or new shares being issued to fund it.

  • Q4 2026Next step · Chaveroo Fieldpermits expected for next drilling block of six gross wells before end of fiscal Q4
  • Q4 2026Next step · TexMexnew workover program begun after quarter-end
✓

Your result

A$56.5mif every picked target works
100%overall chance, by value
A$56.5mchance-weighted value

What each way to invest is worth

Chance-weighted value against today's price. Listed options get their own column - usually the most geared way in, and the riskiest.

EPMshares · 0.3× if it worksUS$3.61
0.28×

Your positions if you're right

What a holding would be worth at your chance-weighted US$0.9945 a share. Nothing here is saved.

Create a free account to save and share these assumptions, or sign in.