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Challenger Gold Ltd

ASX:CEL
A$1.60Close 7 Oct 2026 · delayed

Past year: ▲ 1131%(11.5c – 2.07 AUD)

Market cap
A$236m
Shares on issue
148m
In-ground value
A$127m
Risked multiple
0.51×
Story beats
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Last event
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Value Challenger Gold Ltd yourself

Five quick questions, every figure from Challenger Gold Ltd's own disclosures (newest estimate 29 Aug 2011).

3 of 3 targets · best case · 96% overall chanceChance-weighted valueA$121.0mPer shareA$0.819vs price A$1.600.51× · −49%
1

What do you want to value?

A target is an oil or gas accumulation Challenger Gold Ltd has published an estimate for. All of them count to start with, largest first - untick any you don't believe in.

A discovery has already been drilled and found oil or gas. A prospect has not been drilled yet, so it carries extra risk that nothing is there. Reserves are already being produced or approved.

2

How big could it be?

Companies give a low, best and high case. Pick one - the badges show how much the targets you picked hold in that case.

The low case has a 90% chance of being matched or beaten, the best case 50%, the high case only 10%. Gas is in billions of cubic feet, oil and condensate in millions of barrels.

50%chance of at least600bcf gas
50%chance of at least10.0mmbbl liquids
3

How likely is it?

Two chances multiply together: that the oil or gas is really there, and that it actually gets produced.

Being there only matters for an undrilled prospect - a discovery has already proved it. Getting produced needs funding, approvals, buyers and costs to line up. Reserves carry neither.

Chance it's there30%

Applies to the prospects you picked. 20-35% is typical for an undrilled conventional prospect.

Chance it gets produced50%

Applies to discoveries and prospects. Reserves are already counted as produced.

4

What is it worth in the ground?

Oil or gas still underground is worth far less than at the market - someone still has to pay to drill, build and produce it.

These defaults are a common rule of thumb for in-ground value. Takeover prices and broker reports help if you want your own figure.

5

When will we know?

Challenger Gold Ltd's own stated next steps, from its announcements.

The further away a result is, the longer your money waits - and the more chance of delays or new shares being issued to fund it.

Challenger Gold Ltd has not stated dates for its next steps in the announcements we hold.

✓

Your result

A$126.6mif every picked target works
96%overall chance, by value
A$121.0mchance-weighted value

What each way to invest is worth

Chance-weighted value against today's price. Listed options get their own column - usually the most geared way in, and the riskiest.

CELshares · 0.5× if it worksA$1.60
0.51×

Your positions if you're right

What a holding would be worth at your chance-weighted A$0.819 a share. Nothing here is saved.

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