Value Carbon Minerals Ltd yourself
Five quick questions, every figure from Carbon Minerals Ltd's own disclosures (newest estimate 29 Mar 2012).
A multiple this high usually means an old or unproven estimate is counting - check the targets in step 1 and untick any you don't believe in. The screener marks companies above 20× as under review.
What do you want to value?
A target is an oil or gas accumulation Carbon Minerals Ltd has published an estimate for. All of them count to start with, largest first - untick any you don't believe in.
A discovery has already been drilled and found oil or gas. A prospect has not been drilled yet, so it carries extra risk that nothing is there. Reserves are already being produced or approved.
How big could it be?
Companies give a low, best and high case. Pick one - the badges show how much the targets you picked hold in that case.
The low case has a 90% chance of being matched or beaten, the best case 50%, the high case only 10%. Gas is in billions of cubic feet, oil and condensate in millions of barrels.
How likely is it?
Two chances multiply together: that the oil or gas is really there, and that it actually gets produced.
Being there only matters for an undrilled prospect - a discovery has already proved it. Getting produced needs funding, approvals, buyers and costs to line up. Reserves carry neither.
Your targets are already discovered, so this chance doesn't apply. Pick a prospect to use it.
Applies to discoveries and prospects. Reserves are already counted as produced.
What is it worth in the ground?
Oil or gas still underground is worth far less than at the market - someone still has to pay to drill, build and produce it.
These defaults are a common rule of thumb for in-ground value. Takeover prices and broker reports help if you want your own figure.
When will we know?
Carbon Minerals Ltd's own stated next steps, from its announcements.
The further away a result is, the longer your money waits - and the more chance of delays or new shares being issued to fund it.
Carbon Minerals Ltd has not stated dates for its next steps in the announcements we hold.
Your result
What each way to invest is worth
Chance-weighted value against today's price. Listed options get their own column - usually the most geared way in, and the riskiest.
Your positions if you're right
What a holding would be worth at your chance-weighted A$55.03 a share. Nothing here is saved.
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