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Armour Energy Ltd

ASX:AJQ
A$0.100Latest close held · delayed

Past year: ▼ 20%(10.0c – 12.5c AUD)

Market cap
A$10.2m
Shares on issue
102m
In-ground value
A$793m
Risked multiple
19.48×
Story beats
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Last event
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Value Armour Energy Ltd yourself

Five quick questions, every figure from Armour Energy Ltd's own disclosures (newest estimate 3 July 2023).

26 of 26 targets · best case · 15% overall chanceChance-weighted valueA$120.1mPer shareA$1.18vs price A$0.10011.75× · +1075%
1

What do you want to value?

A target is an oil or gas accumulation Armour Energy Ltd has published an estimate for. All of them count to start with, largest first - untick any you don't believe in.

A discovery has already been drilled and found oil or gas. A prospect has not been drilled yet, so it carries extra risk that nothing is there. Reserves are already being produced or approved.

2

How big could it be?

Companies give a low, best and high case. Pick one - the badges show how much the targets you picked hold in that case.

The low case has a 90% chance of being matched or beaten, the best case 50%, the high case only 10%. Gas is in billions of cubic feet, oil and condensate in millions of barrels.

50%chance of at least793bcf gas
50%chance of at least810mmbbl liquids
3

How likely is it?

Two chances multiply together: that the oil or gas is really there, and that it actually gets produced.

Being there only matters for an undrilled prospect - a discovery has already proved it. Getting produced needs funding, approvals, buyers and costs to line up. Reserves carry neither.

Chance it's there30%

Applies to the prospects you picked. 20-35% is typical for an undrilled conventional prospect.

Chance it gets produced50%

Applies to discoveries and prospects. Reserves are already counted as produced.

4

What is it worth in the ground?

Oil or gas still underground is worth far less than at the market - someone still has to pay to drill, build and produce it.

These defaults are a common rule of thumb for in-ground value. Takeover prices and broker reports help if you want your own figure.

5

When will we know?

Armour Energy Ltd's own stated next steps, from its announcements.

The further away a result is, the longer your money waits - and the more chance of delays or new shares being issued to fund it.

Armour Energy Ltd has not stated dates for its next steps in the announcements we hold.

✓

Your result

A$792.5mif every picked target works
15%overall chance, by value
A$120.1mchance-weighted value

What each way to invest is worth

Chance-weighted value against today's price. Listed options get their own column - usually the most geared way in, and the riskiest.

11.75×
A$0.100AJQshares · 77.6× if it works

Your positions if you're right

What a holding would be worth at your chance-weighted A$1.18 a share. Nothing here is saved.

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