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Friday 9 October 2026 · Oil, gas and mining explorers, from their own disclosures

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Greenfire Resources Ltd.

TSX:GFR · 12 story beats from 2023 to 2026

What it holds, and what it is worth

441mmbbl oil

reserve · P90 319 / P50 441 / P10 441

Valued at: Greenfire Resources Ltd. 100%Permit: GREAT DIVIDE
1 note for review
  • liquids: high case not stated; set equal to P50
50%
Probability of
441
mmbbl
100.0%
Value retained
$1,764,000,000.00
AUD

Leverage per instrument

TSX:GFR
160%
$8.80 → $14.07

The story so far

The events that changed the company's story, in plain English, each written against everything known about the company at the time. The dot shows whether it was good, bad or neutral for shareholders.

shares on issue market cap (log scale)

2026125m shares · C$1.01bn market cap

  1. 13 July

    Greenfire agreed to buy Connacher Oil and Gas Limited for about C$1.277 billion in cash, expected to close in August 2026. Connacher owns 100% of the Great Divide oil sands project next to Greenfire's Hangingstone assets, expected to produce about 19,500 bbl/d in 2026 and holding about 441 MMBbl of proved plus probable reserves. Greenfire expects combined 2026 production of about 34,000 bbl/d and about C$30 million a year of cost savings by end-2026. Funding is an about C$700 million draw on a C$1.0 billion bank loan (upsized from C$275 million) plus a C$575 million bridge loan, to be repaid from a new rights offering with WEF committing to stand by for at least C$575 million. This reverses the debt-free position reached in December 2025 and signals further new-share issuance; terms of the rights offering were in a separate release not included in the text provided.

    capital raising announcement

    125m shC$1.01bn

202569.7m shares · C$448m market cap

  1. 22 Dec

    The rights offering closed with 55,147,055 new shares issued at C$5.44 or US$3.85, raising about C$298.5 million, and the standby commitment from WEF was not needed. Greenfire used the proceeds plus cash to redeem all US$237.5 million of its 12% 2028 notes, which resolves the refinancing set out in November. It also closed an upsized C$275 million bank revolver (previously C$50 million), undrawn, and says it is debt-free. Shares outstanding are now 125,404,146, so existing holders who did not take up their rights now own a smaller share.

    capital raising announcement

    69.7m shC$448m
  2. 17 Dec

    Preliminary results show the rights offering, which expired December 16, 2025, was oversubscribed. The company expects to issue the maximum 55,147,058 shares without relying on WEF's backstop. Holders subscribed for 53,567,940 shares in the basic round and asked for 23,794,471 more in the extra round, so about 1.58 million shares will be shared out pro rata. Proceeds plus cash are still intended to redeem the US$237.5 million of 12% notes. Results are preliminary until the final count.

    capital raising announcement

    69.7m shC$448m
  3. 6 Nov

    Greenfire launched the C$300 million rights offering announced on November 3. Holders on November 17, 2025 get one right per share, and each right buys 0.7849 of a new share at C$5.44 or US$3.85, a 15% discount to the recent average price. Waterous Energy Fund (about 55.9% owner) agreed to take up its own rights and buy any shares others leave unsold, with no standby fee. The money, plus cash on hand, is meant to redeem the US$237.5 million 2028 notes at 106% of principal on an expected December 19 date, conditional on the offering completing. Shares outstanding would go from 70,256,512 to an expected 125,403,570, and the rights expire December 16.

    capital raising announcement

    69.7m shC$496m
  4. 4 Nov

    Greenfire filed its third-quarter 2025 financial statements and announced it intends to run a C$300 million rights offering, which lets existing shareholders buy new shares. Q3 showed a net loss of C$8.8 million (versus C$58.9 million net income a year earlier), while nine-month net income was C$56.1 million (versus C$42.8 million) and cash was C$114.7 million (C$67.4 million at end-2024). The 2028 notes stood at US$237.5 million, now mostly classed as long-term debt, and WEF held about 55.9% of the shares. The rights offering terms and use of proceeds were in a separate release not included in the text provided; the exhibit list ties it to 'refinancing initiatives'.

    capital raising announcement

    69.7m shC$496m

202468.6m shares · C$702m market cap

  1. 27 Dec

    Because WEF's move to 56.5% counts as a change of control under the 2028 notes indenture, Greenfire launched an offer to buy back any of the 12.0% senior secured notes at 101% of principal plus accrued interest. The offer runs until February 19, 2025, with purchases expected February 24. This is the buyback obligation the board warned about in the rights plan announcements. The company also warns it could need extra funds if many notes were tendered.

    debt financing

    68.6m shC$702m
  2. 26 Dec

    Greenfire and WEF signed an Investor Agreement: the second rights plan (dated December 7, 2024) was terminated, WEF withdrew its November 18 meeting requisition, and Perkal, CEO Robert Logan and Jonathan Klesch resigned from the board. WEF's six nominees joined, with Adam Waterous as Chairman, and Tom Ebbern became Lead Director. WEF also bought Brigade's shares and warrants at US$7.83 per share, raising its stake to 56.5%. The strategic review continues under a special committee led by Ebbern, with a new financial advisor to replace TD Securities. This ends the rights-plan fight from September and November, with WEF now holding a majority.

    business combination

    68.6m shC$702m
  3. 7 Nov

    The Alberta Securities Commission cease-traded Greenfire's rights plan, ending it immediately, which lets WEF proceed with buying 43.3% of the shares. Greenfire applied to an Alberta court for an interim injunction to stop the share sales by Allard (McIntyre), Annapurna (Siva) and Modro Holdings. The board also adopted a new rights plan that treats WEF's agreed purchase as already owned (so WEF is not an Acquiring Person) but would trigger if WEF buys more than 1% further, effectively capping it at 44.3%. The McDaniel reserve report is now expected in the second half of November rather than by year-end. This escalates the contest from September; McIntyre and Siva are now described as former directors.

    listing compliance notice

    68.6m shC$674m
  4. 19 Sept

    Waterous Energy Fund (WEF) announced on September 16, 2024 that it had agreed to buy 43.3% of Greenfire's shares from existing holders, including companies controlled by directors Julian McIntyre and Venkat Siva, at a 15% premium. Greenfire's board said the price undervalues the shares. It disclosed that it hired TD Securities in July 2024 to review strategic alternatives, named Matthew Perkal interim chair in place of McIntyre, formed a special committee, and adopted a shareholder rights plan meant to stop WEF crossing 20% outside a permitted bid. The plan needs shareholder ratification within six months and TSX acceptance. The board also noted that a change of control would require an offer to repurchase all US$239 million of the 2028 notes. This starts a control contest and a formal strategic review, and an updated reserve report is expected by year-end.

    business combination

    68.6m shC$686m
  5. 11 July

    Greenfire is redeeming about US$61 million of its US$300 million 2028 senior secured notes on July 12, 2024, as the note terms require. This is the first required cash-flow paydown of the notes issued in the September 2023 refinancing. Cash was about C$160 million at June 30, 2024, including about C$50 million from accelerated collection of June oil sales. The notes require 75% of excess cash flow to go to redemptions at 105% of principal until debt falls below US$150 million, leaving 25% for shareholder returns. After that, the split flips to 25% for redemptions and 75% for shareholder returns.

    debt financing

    68.6m shC$635m
  6. 21 Mar

    Greenfire filed its audited 2023 results, year-end reserves and a news release on its drilling program. For 2023 it reported a net loss of C$135.7 million on revenue (oil sales net of royalties) of C$652.3 million, versus net income of C$131.7 million in 2022; the loss includes a C$106.5 million listing expense tied to the September 2023 merger. Cash rose to C$109.5 million from C$35.4 million. Long-term debt, including the current portion, was C$376.3 million. The headline also mentions a first extended-reach Refill well at the Demo Asset in Q1 2024, but the drilling details were not in the text provided.

    drilling progress report

    68.6m shC$480m

2023

  1. 22 Sept

    Greenfire closed its merger with the listed shell company M3-Brigade Acquisition III Corp. (valuing Greenfire at US$950 million), and its shares were expected to start trading on the NYSE as "GFR" on September 21, 2023. It also raised about US$42 million in a private placement at US$10.10 per share, issued US$300 million of 12.0% senior secured notes due October 1, 2028 (at US$980 per US$1,000), and used the proceeds to buy back nearly all of the US$217.9 million of older 12.0% notes due 2025. A new undrawn C$50 million bank credit facility led by Bank of Montreal was also put in place. Former Greenfire holders own about 87% of the shares after closing. The planned US$50 million of convertible notes were not issued.

    business combination